Thursday, June 12, 2014

New paper finds sunshine "highly correlated" to temperature anomalies over past 50 years

A paper published today in the International Journal of Climatology finds sunshine at the Earth's surface was "highly correlated" to temperature anomalies over the past 50 years in the Carpathian Region of Europe. 

According to the authors,
"we highlight that in the Carpathian Region positive and negative sunshine duration anomalies are highly correlated to the corresponding temperature anomalies during the global dimming (1960s and 1970s) and brightening (1990s and 2000s) periods."
The paper joins many others documenting the "global dimming" of the 1960's and 1970's was associated with global cooling and the ice age scare of the 1970's, followed by "global brightening" of the 1980's-2000's associated with global warming.

The paper also finds a decreasing trend in relative humidity over the past 50 years in spring, summer, and winter, which is contrary to climate model assumptions of constant relative humidity/increasing specific humidity in a warming climate, and supportive of the Miskolczi theory of a saturated greenhouse effect. Cloud cover was also found to have a decreasing trend, which increases solar insolation and warming.

Climate of the Carpathian Region in the period 1961–2010: climatologies and trends of 10 variables

Jonathan Spinoni et al

The Carpathians are the longest mountain range in Europe and a geographic barrier between Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and the Balkans. To investigate the climate of the area, the CARPATCLIM project members collected, quality-checked, homogenized, harmonized, and interpolated daily data for 16 meteorological variables and many derived indicators related to the period 1961–2010. The principal outcome of the project is the Climate Atlas of the Carpathian Region, hosted on a dedicated website ( and made of high-resolution daily grids (0.1° × 0.1°) of all variables and indicators at different time steps. In this article, we analyze the spatial and temporal variability of 10 variables: minimum, mean, and maximum temperature, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloud cover, relative sunshine duration, relative humidity, surface air pressure, and wind speed at 2 m. For each variable, we present the gridded climatologies for the period 1961–2010 and discuss the linear trends both on an annual and seasonal basis. Temperature was found to increase in every season, in particular in the last three decades, confirming the trends occurring in Europe; wind speed decreased in every season; cloud cover and relative humidity decreased in spring, summer, and winter, and increased in autumn, while relative sunshine duration behaved in the opposite way; precipitation and surface air pressure showed no significant trend, though they increased slightly on an annual basis. We also discuss the correlation between the variables and we highlight that in the Carpathian Region positive and negative sunshine duration anomalies are highly correlated to the corresponding temperature anomalies during the global dimming (1960s and 1970s) and brightening (1990s and 2000s) periods.


  1. Sorry, the models say otherwise. Reality is wrong.

  2. here's an idea--- just because some dodo bird(s) decided to
    change to the term "climate change", doesn't mean we have to.regardless of what term they use, they're concerned about a warmer planet. NEVER should we use the "CC" words. ALWAYS global warming (or AGW)

  3. The work of Henrick Svensmark and others ("The Chilling Stars", interesting book) suggests that the sun's magnetic strength (as tracked through sunspot activity) changes in cycles, and has a direct effect on climate by controlling cloud formation.

    Strong magnetic field = fewer cosmic rays making it to the earth = fewer clouds = warmer earth.
    Weaker magnetic field (as in the Maunder and Dalton Minimum cold periods) = more cosmic rays making it to earth, which are ionizing radiation that create cloud condensation nuclei = more clouds = cooler earth.

    It's an elegant theory that is supported by a lot of data, and neatly explains why the north and south poles tend to have opposing temperature trends (more clouds make the north pole cooler, and the south pole warmer, and vice-versa).

    The late 1900's were the peak of a grand maximum in sunspot activity. The last 15 years or so the sun has gone quiet, sunspot activity has dropped off to a small fraction of what it was a few decades ago.

    Hiding the sunshine data is an attempt to cut off further evidence that the sun may be the overwhelming control of our climate. There is no potential funding bonanza in trying to control the activity of the sun's magnetic field, follow the money.

    1. Why would more clouds make the South Pole warmer?

    2. Do you mean the south pole tends to have less clouds, making it warmer?

      It does come across unclear but that is what I was thinking

  4. Central ENgland shows complete correlation of max temps to sunshine hours and a PDO/AMO cycle.