Thursday, April 29, 2010

Oh, Mann: Cuccinelli targets UVA papers in Climategate salvo

UPDATE: Read the Demand Letter from the Attorney General to UVA

by Courteney Stuart 4:32pm Thursday Apr 29, 2010
No one can accuse Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli of shying from controversy. In his first four months in office, Cuccinelli directed public universities to remove sexual orientation from their anti-discrimination policies, attacked the Environmental Protection Agency, and filed a lawsuit challenging federal health care reform. Now, it appears, he may be preparing a legal assault on an embattled proponent of global warming theory who used to teach at the University of Virginia, Michael Mann.

In papers sent to UVA April 23, Cuccinelli’s office commands the university to produce a sweeping swath of documents relating to Mann’s receipt of nearly half a million dollars in state grant-funded climate research conducted while Mann— now director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State— was at UVA between 1999 and 2005.

If Cuccinelli succeeds in finding a smoking gun like the purloined emails that led to the international scandal dubbed Climategate, Cuccinelli could seek the return of all the research money, legal fees, and trebled damages.

Antarctica's Sub-Tropical Past

Scientists peer into Antarctica's past
via Eurekalert 4/29/10

The poles control much of our global climate. Giant ice sheets in Antarctica behave like mirrors, reflecting the sun's energy and moderating the world's temperatures. The waxing and waning of these ice sheets contribute to changes in sea level and affect ocean circulation, which regulates our climate by transporting heat around the planet.

Despite their present-day cold temperatures, the poles were not always covered with ice. New climate records recovered from Antarctica during the recent Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) "Wilkes Land Glacial History" Expedition show that approximately 53 million years ago, Antarctica was a warm, sub-tropical environment. During this same period, known as the "greenhouse" or "hothouse" world, atmospheric CO2 levels exceeded those of today by ten times.

Then suddenly, Antarctica's lush environment transitioned into its modern icy realm. In only 400,000 years – a mere blink of an eye in geologic time – concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreased. Global temperatures dropped. Ice sheets developed. Antarctica became ice-bound.

How did this change happen so abruptly and how stable can we expect ice sheets to be in the future?

[How indeed... if CO2 levels were 10 times higher than today and Antarctica a subtropical paradise could the run-away-catastrophic-positive-feedback-system possibly reverse?]

Australia's Changing Climate-Change Climate

Costly cap-and-trade legislation isn't the political winner it once was.

It was always going to be an uphill battle for the U.S. Congress to pass comprehensive climate and energy legislation in an election year. But with Senator Lindsey Graham's likely decision to withdraw his support from the landmark bill, the prospects are now virtually zero.

That is not just because Mr. Graham had been the only Republican senator to endorse a broad approach to tackling global warming. It's because the climate, politically speaking, has changed dramatically since June when the House of Representatives narrowly passed a climate cap-and-tax bill. President Obama's decision to make immigration reform a higher priority in the Senate legislative calendar is a recognition of this reality: Cap-and-tax is dead. And not just in Washington either.

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Re-recorded History

The animation below shows how the surface, weather balloon, and even satellite data has been adjusted between years 1995, 2000, and 2006:

Older inconvenient data are pushed down and recent data increased to create a tidy story. Created from slides of Pat Michaels presentation from the highly recommended video below of the Cooler Heads Coalition congressional briefing on the science and politics of the "Climategate" scandal. Featured speakers are George Mason University Distinguished Senior Fellow Pat Michaels and International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP) Executive Director Joseph D'Aleo:

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

More on the ~60 Year Climate Cycle

The P Gosselin NoTricksZone corresponded with Dr Oleg Pokrovsky, the Russian scientist who was widely quoted by international newswires 4 days ago about his statement that the Arctic is cooling, not warming. Dr. Pokrovsky replied and provided a link to his recent powerpoint presentation. He bases his analysis partly upon the cyclical nature of the AMO and PDO, as shown in his wavelet analyses below. The simplistic explanation for interpretation of the wavelet analysis is to look for dark red horizontal bands, which show the primary cyclical component for both the AMO and PDO to range between ~60-70 years (y axis):
Dr. Pokrovsky also finds good agreement between the ~60 year AMO cycle and Arctic ice extent:
He also finds similar periodicity in the PDO during the instrument era (first graph) and from paleoclimate reconstructions (second graph).

Monday, April 26, 2010

Ancient Tools Revealed by Melting Arctic Ice

MSM fails again to point out Arctic naturally much warmer in past and no evidence to suggest it's any different this time

LiveScience Staff posted: 26 April 2010 02:43 pm ET

Warming temperatures are melting patches of ice that have been in place for thousands of years in the mountains of the Canadian High Arctic and in turn revealing a treasure trove of ancient hunting tools...
The results have been extraordinary: Andrews and his team (including members of the indigenous Shutaot'ine or Mountain Dene) have found 2,400-year-old spear throwing tools, a 1000-year-old ground squirrel snare, and bows and arrows dating back 850 years.
The latter two would be from the Medieval Warming Period, which despite Mann et al attempts to "contain" and claim was only localized, has overwhelming evidence it was in fact global and hotter than the present. The 2,400 year old spear tool would be from the Roman Warming Period, also hotter than the present. No mention of course in the LiveScience press release.

The Global Temperature Anomaly Race Track

And they're off! Since the starting gate of the 1998 El Nino, the Hansen/GISS thoroughbred racehorse maintains it's commanding lead from it's flying start and sharp pullout from the year 2000 backstretch. The Hansen/GISS thoroughbred was the clear favorite and thus odds are only even money for a win, even though a track record is in the offing. Pulling up the rear and actually going the "wrong" way are the neck-to-neck long-shots RSS and UAH satellite donkeys, at a record anomaly difference of .3°C, about half of the entire claimed global warming anomaly of the past century. The Hansen/GISS thoroughbred is the only one that can continue to spin that the globe is the hottest in re-recorded history at every stretch, and can continue it's commanding lead by adjustments and deletions of inconvenient data, an advantage not available to the satellite donkeys which are at 1000-1 odds. Global bets placed upon the outcome are currently estimated at $45 trillion. 

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Adiabatic Theory predicts slight cooling from Doubled CO2

Adding to the list (1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25...and others) of scientists and mathematicians who have disproven conventional greenhouse gas theory, Russian physicists OG Sorokhtin, GV Chilingar, and LF Khilyuk noted in their book Global warming and global cooling. Evolution of climate on earth. Developments in Earth & Environmental Sciences (Elsevier 2007) that conventional greenhouse theory is not based on sound physical derivation, with most calculations and predictions based on intuitive models using numerous poorly defined parameters and unproven positive feedback forcing from CO2. Most conventional interpretations and models, such as those of the IPCC, consider only one component of heat transfer- radiation- to create a flat earth radiation budget of the atmosphere, ocean, and land masses, and do not adequately address the impact of e.g. convection and circulation on a rotating sphere. In contrast, the Sorokhtin et al adiabatic theory considers earth as an open, dissipative system that can be described by non-linear equations of mathematical physics, taking into account the formation of stable thermodynamic structures in each compartment, between compartments, and ruled by strong negative feedbacks (e.g. convection, water cycles, clouds). They devised a model based on well-established relationships among physical fields describing the mass and heat transfer in the atmosphere and subsequently published the paper Cooling of Atmosphere Due to CO2 in Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects (2008), excerpted below.
This paper and all of the other derivations of atmospheric physics noted in the list above come to essentially the same conclusion: Doubling of CO2 levels will cause insignificant changes in global temperature (<1°C). This prediction is in much better agreement with the five peer-reviewed empirical satellite studies than any of the IPCC models or predictions from conventional greenhouse gas theory.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

9000 Years of Decreasing Monsoons in China

One critical flaw of the IPCC appears to be a myopic focus on climate changes within the past century without placing these changes in proper historical context, and then assuming the 20th century changes can not be accounted for by anything other than anthropogenic forcing (i.e. man-made CO2). Time and time again, however, the paleoclimate record shows the 0.6C temperature change of the 20th century to be trivial in comparison to entirely natural changes that have occurred in both directions since the beginning of time. This is a point made by Dr. Richard Lindzen many times. Not only are the temperature changes of the 20th century trivial, but so are other climate indicators including monsoons and droughts. Here are two examples, the first indicating that the strength of Asian Monsoons has shown a declining trend over the past 9000 years:
As the earth has warmed since the last ice age 15,000 years ago, the strength of monsoons (and amount of associated vital precipitation) has decreased. The "recent" uptick started about 500 years ago from the low of the past 9000 years, and therefore can not be accounted for by anthropogenic forcing.  What does the IPCC AR4 say about Asian monsoons?:  "An increase in precipitation is projected in the Asian monsoon (along with an increase in interannual season-averaged precipitation variability)." Setting aside that there is no evidence that this is due to man, an increase in monsoonal precipitation appears to be a good thing in historical context. Shown below are records of precipitation for 5 regions covering northern to southern China, with times of severe drought shown as red vertical lines (note absence in the 20th century and lack of "increasing variability"):
The periods of severe drought correspond to the period of abnormally low monsoonal strength shown in the first graph. The IPCC prediction of increased monsoonal precipitation (and variability) due to anthropogenic forcing is baseless conjecture, and even if true is likely to be benefitial for avoidance of severe drought.
graph source

Friday, April 23, 2010

Sign of the Times: Amazon Rank Spencer 40 v. Romm 2087

Dr. Roy Spencer's new book The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World's Top Climate Scientists is the 40th best selling book on Amazon. Also just released, Climategate: A Meteorologist Exposes the Global Warming Scam by Brian Sussman is the 52nd best selling book on Amazon. In contrast, Straight Up: America's Fiercest Climate Blogger Takes on the Status Quo Media, Politicians, and Clean Energy Solutions released 5 days earlier than the 2 books above by climate hyper-alarmist Joe Romm has an Amazon rank of 2087, despite a push by Al Gore. Spencer outselling Romm 52 to 1: Another inconvenient truth (ratio could be even higher if actual sales numbers were provided by Amazon)

Twenty Years of Advocacy, Not Journalism, on Global Warming

The media has forged a consensus around climate change.
By RICH NOYES The Media Research Center

For more than two decades, the so-called mainstream media have preached the dangers of manmade global warming, insisting American businesses and consumers must make massive economic sacrifices to ward off a global climate catastrophe. Not even last November's exposure of e-mails from leading scientists on the alarmist side of the debate — showing them conniving to fudge or suppress data, discredit critics and distort the peer review process — has caused journalists to finally take a skeptical approach to radical environmentalists' doomsaying.

A new study from the MRC's Business & Media Institute documents how ABC, CBS and NBC have been just as strident in their advocacy in the months following "ClimateGate" as they were in the 20 years that preceded the scandal. At the same time, a review of the Media Research Center's archives going back to the late 1980s shows just how strongly reporters have pushed the liberal line on global warming. Here are just some of the many examples:

• "Global warming could mean economic upheaval. It could bring suffering. It could bring starvation....The causes of global warming are no mystery. The biggest culprit is carbon dioxide, or CO2, a bi-product when man burns fossil fuels to run cars or generate electricity....If we fail to act, there may be hell to pay in a hotter world....Global warming is not a fact, just a widely-held theory. The problem is, if man waits for proof, it may be too late."
— Host Don Harrison narrating CNN's primetime Climate In Crisis special, August 1, 1989.

•"As the science editor at Time, I would freely admit that on this issue we have crossed the boundary from news reporting to advocacy."
— Time's Charles Alexander at a September 16, 1989 global warming conference at the Smithsonian Institute, as quoted in the October 5 Wall Street Journal.

• "If the world is to head off the risk of global warming, with its danger of massive crop failure, or rising sea levels, or spreading starvation in the poorest countries, then America — the largest producer of the gases that cause global warming — is in the spotlight."
— ABC reporter Ned Potter on World News Tonight, April 7, 1992.

• "Environmentalists see catastrophes of biblical proportions, from droughts to melting ice caps that send sea levels rising."
— Correspondent Barry Petersen on the CBS Evening News, December 1, 1997.

• Karen Kerrigan, Small Business Survival Committee: "To say that the science is actually bunk."
Host Ted Koppel: "I was just going to make the observation that there are still some people who believe in the Flat Earth Society, too, but that doesn't mean they're right."
— Exchange on the December 9, 1997 Nightline.
More at WSJ.COM  and some of the results from Minnesotans 4 Global Warming: Crazy Hippies Celebrate Earthday:

BREAKING: Scientist says Arctic getting colder

MOSCOW, April 23 (UPI) -- A Russian scientist says the Arctic may be getting colder, not warmer, which would hamper the international race to discover new mineral fields.

An Arctic cold snap that began in 1998 could last for years, freezing the northern marine passage and making it impassable without icebreaking ships, said Oleg Pokrovsky of the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory.

"I think the development of the shelf will face large problems," Pokrovsky said Thursday at a seminar on research in the Polar regions.

Scientists who believe the climate is warming may have been misled by data from U.S. meteorological stations located in urban areas, where dense microclimates creates higher temperatures, RIA Novosti quoted Pokrovsky as saying.

"Politicians who placed their bets on global warming may lose the pot," Pokrovsky said.

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Global warming hoax? Environmentalist discusses climate alarmist pollution

AN EARTH DAY COUNTERPOINT By Larry Bell April 22nd, 2010

I consider myself an environmentalist, but having extensively studied the issues I haven’t found any evidence that the sky is falling, oceans are rising, polar bears are sweating or that carbon dioxide is a polluting menace.

There is clear evidence, however, that such claims are predicated upon climate models that can’t even predict last week’s weather, that Norse Viking farmers grew crops in a much warmer Greenland about 1,000 years ago, that global temperatures have risen and fallen dramatically over hundreds of thousands of years without human influence, and that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels typically followed, not led those changes.

By the way, maybe you noticed that global temperatures have actually been dropping over the past decade in spite of increased CO2?

Happy Earth Day to you, too.
Some may argue that unfounded alarmism is justifiable, even necessary, to get our attention and motivate us to do what we should be doing anyway to conserve energy and not pollute the planet. Hey, who wants to challenge those purposes?

Quotes from the 1st Earth Day 1970

“We have about five more years at the outside to do something.”
• Kenneth Watt, ecologist

“Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”
• George Wald, Harvard Biologist

“We are in an environmental crisis which threatens the survival of this nation, and of the world as a suitable place of human habitation.”
• Barry Commoner, Washington University biologist

“Man must stop pollution and conserve his resources, not merely to enhance existence but to save the race from intolerable deterioration and possible extinction.”
• New York Times editorial, the day after the first Earth Day

“Population will inevitably and completely outstrip whatever small increases in food supplies we make. The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.”
• Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

“By…[1975] some experts feel that food shortages will have escalated the present level of world hunger and starvation into famines of unbelievable proportions. Other experts, more optimistic, think the ultimate food-population collision will not occur until the decade of the 1980s.”
• Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist

“It is already too late to avoid mass starvation.”
• Denis Hayes, chief organizer for Earth Day

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Human Contribution to Warming is 10% or Less

SCIENCE EDITORIAL (April 17, 2010) by S. Fred Singer, PhD

Due Diligence on the IPCC Assessment Report #4 [2007]

I know it’s a tough job – but let’s just check the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC 2007) iconic, widely-quoted conclusion and parse its meaning:

“Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GH gas concentrations.”

How should one interpret this ex cathedra declaration to the faithful?

IPCC helpfully defines ‘very likely’ as ‘90-99% certain’, but they don’t tell us how they reached such well-defined certainty.

What remarkable unanimity! Just how many and whom did they poll? No word.

IPCC doesn’t define the word ‘most.’ We may assume it means anything between 51 and 99%. That’s quite a spread.

Climate Science In Denial

In mid-November of 2009 there appeared a file on the Internet containing thousands of emails and other documents from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in Great Britain. How this file got into the public domain is still uncertain, but the emails, whose authenticity is no longer in question, provided a view into the world of climate research that was revealing and even startling.
In what has come to be known as "climategate," one could see unambiguous evidence of the unethical suppression of information and opposing viewpoints, and even data manipulation. The Climatic Research Unit is hardly an obscure outpost; it supplies many of the authors for the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Moreover, the emails showed ample collusion with other prominent researchers in the United States and elsewhere.
One might have thought the revelations would discredit the allegedly settled science underlying currently proposed global warming policy, and, indeed, the revelations may have played some role in the failure of last December's Copenhagen climate conference to agree on new carbon emissions limits. But with the political momentum behind policy proposals and billions in research funding at stake, the impact of the emails appears to have been small.
The general approach of the official scientific community (at least in the United States and the United Kingdom) has been to see whether people will bother to look at the files in detail (for the most part they have not), and to wait until time diffuses the initial impressions in order to reassert the original message of a climate catastrophe that must be fought with a huge measure of carbon control. 
This reassertion, however, continues to be suffused by illogic, nastiness and outright dishonesty. There were, of course, the inevitable investigations of individuals like Penn State University's Michael Mann (who manipulated data to create the famous "hockey stick" climate graph) and Phil Jones (director of the CRU). The investigations were brief, thoroughly lacking in depth, and conducted, for the most part, by individuals already publicly committed to the popular view of climate alarm. The results were whitewashes that are quite incredible given the actual data.

Climate Alarmist Trashes Dr. Spencer's New Book Using Leeches

Climate hyper-alarmist Joe Romm has just posted his scientific rebuttal of Dr. Roy Spencer's new book. Mr. Romm, perhaps the only alarmist to the left of Al Gore, bases his primary scientific argument upon the occasional medicinal use of leeches. Would that make Dr. Spencer a medicinal leech denier too?

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Mann Threatens Lawsuit Against Video Exposing His Hockey Stick

I'm no lawyer, but believe that for a libel or slander lawsuit to be successful, the plaintiff must prove that the defendants knew what they said was false, and that truth is an absolute defense. Thus, if Michael Mann is foolish enough to proceed with his threatened lawsuit against Minnesotans 4 Global Warming for their Hide the Decline parody video, he will:
1. Need to prove that Phil Jones email to Mann about Mike [Mann's] Nature Trick to "hide the decline" doesn't really refer to Mann "hiding the decline" in the tree ring data, which show decreasing temperatures after 1960.
2. Need to prove that Mann's email to Phil Jones on June 4, 2003, stating "it would be nice to try to "contain" the putative "MWP" [Medieval Warming Period], even if we don't yet have a hemispheric mean reconstruction available that far back” does not show scientific malfeasance.
3. Need to prove that Mann's hockey stick isn't one of the most thoroughly debunked scientific papers of the 20th century
4. Need to prove that Mann himself has not repeatedly deliberately distorted highly critical reviews of his work
5. Need to prove that it is ok for Mann to continue to flip temperature proxies upside down even in his latest papers, even though this egregious error has already been pointed out to him in the past and which he still refuses to acknowledge.
6. UPDATE: Need to prove that Mann's email stating "As we all know, this isn't about truth at all, its about plausibly deniable accusations" shows Mann has any interest in the "truth at all".
and so nauseum.
Minnesotans 4 Global Warming hope Mann will proceed with his lawsuit so that the legal discovery process will force exposure of data and methods Mann has still not released and that the official whitewash inquiries refuse to investigate. In the mean time, they have removed Mann's name and produced the new Hide the Decline II video:
Related: Michael Mann quotes

The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World’s Top Climate Scientists

April 20th, 2010 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Today (April 20) is the official release date of my new book entitled: “The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World’s Top Climate Scientists“, published by Encounter Books.

About one-half of Blunder is a non-technical description of our new peer reviewed and soon-to-be-published research which supports the opinion that a majority of Americans already hold: that warming in recent decades is mostly due to a natural cycle in the climate system — not to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning.

Believe it or not, this potential natural explanation for recent warming has never been seriously researched by climate scientists. The main reason they have ignored this possibility is that they cannot think of what might have caused it.

You see, climate researchers are rather myopic. They think that the only way for global-average temperatures to change is for the climate system to be forced ‘externally’…by a change in the output of the sun, or by a large volcanic eruption. These are events which occur external to the normal, internal operation of the climate system.

But what they have ignored is the potential for the climate system to cause its own climate change. Climate change is simply what the system does, owing to its complex, dynamic, chaotic internal behavior.

As I travel around the country, I find that the public instinctively understands the possibility that there are natural climate cycles. Unfortunately, it is the climate “experts” who have difficulty grasping the concept. This is why I am taking my case to the public in this book. The climate research community long ago took the wrong fork in the road, and I am afraid that it might be too late for them to turn back.

Read more at Dr. Spencer's website

Monday, April 19, 2010

Astrophysicist: Anthropogenic Global Warming is a Myth

South African astrophysicist and solar researcher Hilton Ratcliffe (author of "The Virtue of Heresy" and "The Static Universe") tackles Al Gore, climate change, and the myth of Anthropogenic Global Warming head on. He must be another of those Republican climate deniers in the pockets of big oil.

CNBC's "Carbon Hunters" to Premiere Tomorrow

Snide on-air promo states "will it save the earth or is it all a scam?"

Press release: "Carbon Hunters" on CNBC will premiere on Tuesday, April 20th at 10pm ET, and repeats that night at 1am ET. The documentary will re-air on Sunday, April 25th at 10pm ET.

Can going green make you money? Or is the $100 billion carbon trading market all smoke and mirrors? Carbon Hunters on CNBC takes you inside this controversial, market-driven solution to pollution, where you will meet a new breed of entrepreneurs cashing in on the ‘green rush’. From the Chicago Climate Exchange to Hollywood to ‘Garbage Mountain’ in the Philippines, carbon trading is attracting investors and critics.

As always, follow the money for the answers (not part of press release). Also note, CNBC is owned by General Electric, a manufacturer of wind turbines, nuclear, and fossil fuel power plants.

Saturday, April 17, 2010

The Incorrect Postulate of Climate Alarmism

Very interesting series of posts today on the blog of Dr. Claes Johnson, Professor of Applied Mathematics, KTH, Stockholm, Sweden on his physical derivation of a climate model which predicts the sensitivity of the earth's climate to a doubling of CO2 to be only 0.15ºC, which is in far better agreement with the five peer reviewed studies of empirical satellite data, and in stark contrast to the IPCC/GISS models which artificially inflate the effect of CO2 by a factor of up to 5.35 over the Stefan-Boltzmann prediction to create their artificial alarm.

Dr. Johnson takes issue with the application of the Stefan-Boltzmann Radiation Law to the coupled Earth-atmosphere system, and argues Fourier's Law is the appropriate physical law, which would require the IPCC to use an imaginary positive feedback fudge factor of 30 to match their unjustified claims of the sensitivity to CO2. 
The basic postulate of IPCC climate alarmism is the relation dQ = 4 dT connecting radiative forcing dQ to global warming dT, with dQ = 4 Watts/m^2 from doubling of CO2 giving the climate sensitivity of dT = 1ºC, which is inflated to 1.5 - 4.5ºC by feed back.

The relation dQ = 4 dT comes from Stefan-Boltzmann's Radiation Law, which cannot be disputed as such.

However, the application of the Radiation Law to the coupled Earth-atmosphere system can be disputed. This is what I do in the previous posts on Climate Sensitivity and in the related article A New Approach to Climate Sensitivity with a a model study indicating instead a basic climate sensitivity of 0.15ºC without feed backs...
The basic climate sensitivity thus appears to be 0.15ºC (by Fourier's Law), rather than the commonly presented rock solid 1ºC (by Stefan-Boltzmann's Law). To reach a climate sensitivity of 4.5ºC starting from 0.15ºC requires a positive feed back factor of 30. What can be the science behind a so large positive feed back factor? IPCC does not give any clue, and nobody else... Maybe climate sensitivity is about 0.15ºC? Barely noticable?

Thursday, April 15, 2010

There He Goes Again: Mann Claims His Hockey Stick was Given "Clean Bill of Health"

Spinmeister Michael Mann is quoted in this article from the Telegraph yesterday as follows:
Prof Hand (Head of the UK Royal Statistical Society) praised the blogger Steve McIntyre of Climate Audit for uncovering the fact that inappropriate methods were used which could produce misleading results. "The Mann 1998 hockey stick paper used a particular technique that exaggerated the hockey stick effect," he said.
Prof Mann, who is Professor of Earth System Science at the Pennsylvania State University, said the statistics used in his graph were correct. "I would note that our '98 article was reviewed by the US National Academy of Sciences, the highest scientific authority in the United States, and given a clean bill of health," he said. "In fact, the statistician on the panel, Peter Bloomfield, a member of the Royal Statistical Society, came to the opposite conclusion of Prof Hand."
Mann has been repeating this arrogant duplicitous spin continuously since Climategate and refuses to acknowledge any problems whatsoever with his infamous doomsday hockey stick graph. Mann always refers to the subtly worded US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report as his ally because he knows McIntyre & McKitrick, the Wegman Report, Hans von Storch, et al, and now the Head of the Royal Statistical Society have minced no words debunking his hockey stick. But what did the NAS report and the authors actually say about the Mann hockey stick? In fact, the NAS report validated all of the significant criticisms of McIntyre & McKitrick (M&M):

Another Nail in the Coffin of Man-Made Global Warming & IPCC

(notations in red added)
A 2007 paper published in the prestigious journal Earth and Planetary Sciences Letters by lead author Vincent Courtillot, a prominent French geophysicist and AGW skeptic, shows the stalagmite paleoclimate reconstruction above. A close agreement is found between solar activity and temperature, and no agreement found between CO2 levels and temperature. The Medieval Warming Period is again shown to be the hottest period of the last 2000 years, and the Little Ice Age the coldest period of the last 2000 years (the global thermometer record begins in 1850, around the same time as the termination of the Little Ice Age, and thus mostly represents recovery from these abnormally low temperatures). Stalagmites appear to be superior to tree rings as paleoclimate indicators because the latter is a living organism with many more important confounding variables. Incredible as it may seem, the IPCC attributes 97% of the total positive forcing of climate change to CO2, and assigns solar variation a mere 7% of the positive forcing of CO2, while not even considering the possibility of secondary effects on cosmic rays. AGW salesmen, such as geologist Richard Alley, still cling to the theory that CO2 controls all, despite evidence to the contrary in their own presentations. From the abstract of Courtillot's paper:

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

The Curious Case of the Disappeared NASA Graph

From Ponder the Maunder (website of remarkable teen Kristen Byrnes), comes The Curious Case of the Disappeared NASA Graph:

"The graph [above] was a part of James Hansen's surface temperature analysis for many years. It was continuously updated like the many other graphs on the NASA GISS site. It shows land temperatures warming much faster than ocean temperatures. The graph disappeared from the NASA GISS website without an explanation following the widely publicized Climategate email below:"

From: Tom Wigley
To: Phil Jones
Subject: LAND vs OCEAN
Date: Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:36:15 -0700
We probably need to say more about this. Land warming since 1980 has been twice the ocean warming -- and skeptics might claim that this proves that urban warming is real and important.

Monday, April 12, 2010

NASA's (Changing) FACTS

NASA FACTS 1998 (p.3): "The temperature record of the past hundred years does show a warming trend, by approximately 0.5°C. However, the observed warming trend is not entirely consistent with the carbon dioxide change. Most of the temperature increase occurred before 1940, after which Earth started to cool until the early seventies, when warming resumed. Carbon dioxide, on the other hand, has been increasing steadily throughout the past century."

NASA FACTS 2002: "Far from being some future fear, global warming is happening now, and scientists have evidence that humans are to blame. For decades, cars and factories have spewed billions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, and these gases caused temperatures to rise between 0.6°C and 0.9°C (1.08°F to 1.62°F) over the past century. The rate of warming in the last 50 years was double the rate observed over the last 100 years. Temperatures are certain to go up further."

"Most of the temperature increase occurred before 1940" is mathematically incompatible with "The rate of warming in the last 50 years was double the rate observed over the last 100 years". That is...unless the temperature records changed in the four year interim. Oh wait, they did:

Sunday, April 11, 2010

Richard Alley's Failed Rebuttal of Cosmoclimatology

AGW salesmen, such as geologist Dr. Richard Alley of Penn State, maintain that the variations in solar output have little to do with climate change on earth. In a 2009 lecture, Dr. Alley makes the following statements and shows the slide below as his rebuttal to the Svensmark et al theory of Cosmoclimatology. This theory suggests that small changes in the solar magnetic field throughout solar cycles are amplified due to the effect on cosmic rays, which may seed cloud formation and thereby cool the earth. Dr. Alley tries to refute this theory by stating that a period of high cosmic ray activity 40,000 years ago didn't change the climate. However, the added vertical line below shows a correlation between the increased cosmic rays 40,000 years ago and the end of an interglacial with transition to an ice age and drop in temperature of about 6 degrees. While this does not prove Svensmark's et als theory, it certainly does not support Dr. Alley's rebuttal. Why does Dr. Alley not consider the possibility that the increased cosmic rays played a role in transition to an ice age, and that there might be a "saturation point" beyond which additional cosmic rays do not make a significant difference? That's not discussed, since it doesn't agree with his party-line theory that CO2 controls all.

(red vertical line and "X" added)

link for article above and below


Saturday, April 10, 2010

The Cooling of Greenland over the past 8000 Years

A 2009 paper¹ plots GISP2 paleoclimate icecore data from central Greenland over the past 8000 years, finding at least 6 periods of warming exceeding that of the 20th century. In addition, the rate of warming 900-1000 AD leading up to the Medieval Warming Period exceeds the rate of warming in the 20th century. The authors find close agreement between two analysis methods of the temperature proxies for GISP2 data, stable isotope analysis² and Oxygen 18/16 variability³. The Medieval, Roman, and Minoan warming periods are all found to be hotter than the 20th century, in addition to other unnamed periods of warming over the past 8000 years.

¹Florides GA, Christodoulides P Global warming and CO2 through sciences. Environ Int. 2009 Feb;35(2):390-401.

²Alley RB. GISP2 ice core temperature and accumulation data. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series #2004-013. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO,USA;2004.

³Grootes PM, Stuiver M. Oxygen 18/16 variability in Greenland snow and ice with 10^3 to 10^5-year time resolution. JGeophysRes1997;102:26455–70

Accumulating Evidence of the Corrupted US Temperature Record

A new SPPI paper examines the raw and adjusted historical temperature records for Pennsylvania and finds the mean temperature trend from 1895 to 2009 to be minus .08°C/century, but after unexplained adjustments the official trend becomes positive .7°C/century. The difference between the raw and adjusted data exceeds the .6°C/century in global warming claimed for the 20th century. An example of the raw and adjusted datasets is shown below for Lebanon, PA:

Monday, April 5, 2010

NASA's Gavin Schmidt's Lies, Damned Lies, and Models

From The Washington Post April 6, 2010: Scientists' use of computer models to predict climate change is under attack

This year, critics have harped on that fact, attacking models of climate change that have been used to illustrate what will happen if the United States and other countries do nothing to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Climate scientists have responded that their models are imperfect, but still provide invaluable glimpses of change to come.

They have found themselves trying to persuade the public -- now surrounded by computerized predictions of the future -- to believe in these.

If policymakers don't heed the models, "you're throwing away {GIGO} information. And if you throw away{GIGO} information, then you know less {more} about the future than we actually do {don't}," said Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

"You can say, 'You know what, I don't trust the climate models, so I'm going to walk into the middle of the road with a blindfold on,' " Schmidt said. "But you know what, that's not smart."

Sunday, April 4, 2010

Climate Change is Simply Natural and Disaster isn't Imminent

Dr. Richard Lindzen's OpEd Published today:

The IPCC's claim that most of the warming since the 1950s is because of man assumed that current models adequately accounted for natural internal variability. The failure of these models to anticipate that there has been no statistically significant warming for the past 14 years or so contradicts this assumption.

However, the modelers chose not to stress this. Rather, they suggested that the models could be further corrected, and that warming would resume by 2009, 2013, or even 2030.

Global warming enthusiasts have responded to the recent absence of warming by arguing that the past decade has been the warmest on record. We are still speaking of tenths of a degree, and the records have come into question. But since we are, according to these records, in a relatively warm period, it is not surprising the past decade was the warmest on record.

Given that the evidence suggests that anthropogenic warming has been greatly exaggerated, so is the basis for alarm. But this basis would be weak even if anthropogenic global warming were significant. Polar bears, arctic summer sea ice, regional droughts and floods, coral bleaching, hurricanes, alpine glaciers, malaria, etc., all depend not on GATA, but on a regional variables including temperature, humidity, cloud cover, precipitation, direction and magnitude of wind, and the state of the ocean.

Saturday, April 3, 2010

Trees Insist Arctic Cooled 500-2004 AD

(notations in red added)
Two tenets of AGW theory are 1) tree-ring paleoclimate data reconstructs an accurate portrayal of the climate of the past [except when scientists don't like what it shows, call it a "divergence problem" and hide the decline] and 2) the poles should show the most warming of all. Unfortunately, the Scots pines in the Torneträsk area within the Arctic Circle in northern Sweden around 68.5°N have not received the memo on AGW as of 2004. A 2008 paper shows that the updated Torneträsk data "show a trend of -0.3°C over the last 1,500 years". The trees also say that the end of the Little Ice Age in the late 1800's was the lowest temperature over the past 1,500 years, and according to ice core data was the lowest temperature in the past 10,000 years. By pure chance, this exceptionally cold period is also the same time the global temperature record (HADCRU) begins in 1850. Thus, the global thermometer record showing increasing temperatures in the 20th century mostly represents the recovery from the lowest temperatures of the past 10,000 years during the Little Ice Age. The Torneträsk pines insist that the rate of temperature increase and temperature anomaly of the 20th century was not unprecedented and was less than that of the Medieval Warming Period (~850-1200AD). From the abstract: